Nfl Football Games Point Spread

And a point spread. Therefore, positive training examples are those which the away team won with the spread and negative are those the home team won with the spread. The data consists of statistics from each regular season and postseason NFL football game between 1992 and 2001, totaling 2,487 games in all. Information for each game includes the. The NFL spread (betting point spreads is also known as betting ‘sides’ since you are picking one side to win the game) acknowledges that not all teams are created equal. If they were, we wouldn’t need NFL point spreads at all – teams would be so evenly matched that every game was a toss-up (or a pick em in football parlance). Regardless of if I am talking about the NFL, CFL, NCAA, Arena League or upcoming XFL, the point spread is the most popular wagering option for bettors who love to test football betting skills.

Point Spread Nfl Football Games

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Point Spread For Today's Nfl Football Games

Okay now the fun part creating your own point spread. Many handicappers have long drawn out math equations for making power ratings. I have found that most of these statistical formulas are never as accurate as they claim to be. I have a very simple approach to creating power ratings and will share it with you below.

Okay the new football season is around the corner at the time of publish so I am going off of last season numbers at this point, but you will get the idea. I am going to use the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys as my example in which the books have listed the Redskins as 3 point favorite at Dallas. We are going to take the last 6 scores from both teams 2005 NFL campaign.

Washington
10-20
17-10
31-20
35-20
35-7
17-13

Because we are looking for the median we are going to throw out the high and the low scores for both offense and defense. This will give us the numbers 17, 31, 35, and 17. We threw out one of the 35s and the low score of 10. These 4 games total add up to 100 and give us a median score of 25 on offense. We will do the same for the defense and come up with 20, 10, 20, and 13. The defense power rating is 15.75, (63 divided by 4).

We will than do the same thing with the Cowboys, our hypothetical matchup.

Dallas
10-20
24-20
7-35
31-28
10-17
21-24
20-7

You will see I listed 7 final scores for Dallas and we are going to throw out the last performance of 10-20 against Seattle since that was the Cowboys last game of the season and it was not a meaningful game. Games like these will throw off the power rating, just as you don’t use preseason games in your ratings since it is not an accurate measure of the teams full capabilities.

Point Spread For Nfl Football Games This Weekend

With that said we come up with a median score for the Dallas offense of 24, 10, 21, and 20 which gives us an offensive rating of 18.75. On the defensive side of the ball we have scores of 20, 28, 17, and 24 giving us the defensive power rating of 22.25.

Now that we have our team ratings lets formulate a point spread. Washington’s scoring rating is 25 and Dallas’s defensive rating is 22.25. We add these 2 numbers together and get 47.25 than subtract 20.5 (which is the average team rating that will be used in every power rating for the season) and get 26.75 for predicted Washington points. We would do the same for Dallas, 18.75 + 15.75=34.5. Than subtract the 20.5 and we would come up with 14.

The predicted final score in this game using our power rating system would be Washington 26.75, Dallas 20.5. Because this hypothetical game is being played at Dallas we must add 3 points to the Cowboys score (adding 1.5 to their score and taking 1.5 away from Washington, since the Cowboys are playing at home. Giving us the new total of Washington 25.25, Dallas 22. With our hypothetical point spread of Washington -3 it looks like it is dead on for the most part. This game would be a pass in our book at the current number of Washington -3. Now if the books had made Washington a 2 point favorite, a Washington -2 bet would be a very good investment, just as a line of Dallas +4 would have made a very good investment on Dallas at that number. I recommend wagering on any number that is 1 point off of your power rankings. By staying disciplined and keeping to this 1 point model you will find about 3 solid bets per week against the NFL point spreads.

Just keep in mind to come up with a new median score after each game is played out. Once the first week of the season is over, you would than take that result and eliminate the first of the 6 games you previously used to derive a median score.

Now that we are picking winners lets move on to proper money management.

If you have a sports betting portal and want your link in front of a target gambling audience email me for my rate card.

• Point Spread: The point spread remains the favorite way to wager on pro football, regardless of how many new forms of wagering come on stream. ItÂ’s called the line or spread and itÂ’s known as betting ‘sides.Â’ The common misconception is that Las Vegas sets the spread as its best guess at the margin of victory. But really, it's a number they feel that is a perfect balance and will see an equal number of people to bet the underdog as on the favorite. A negative value like -6.5 means that team is favored by 6.5 points. So deduct 6.5 points from their total score. A positive value on the same game would be +6.5 (add 6.5 points to their final score) and would make that team an underdog of 6.5 points. The favorite must win by at least seven points to cover the spread. The underdog can lose by six points and still cover.

• Total: Also called the over/under, it is a number set by the sportsbooks that proposes a number of points that will be scored in the game by both teams combined. Then, fans predict whether there will be more points or less points than the ‘total.Â’ If you bet the under 41.5, you are hoping for a tough defensive battle with lots of running game. Pick the over, and presumably you feel this will be a high-scoring game. In short, you are predicting whether the combined total score will be more than (over) or less than (under) the total.

• Money Line: More common in baseball and hockey, pro football moneylines are growing in popularity. There is no spread, so your team just needs to win the game, not win by a certain number of points. The negative value means a favorite (-190) and a positive one indicates an underdog (+170). Picture the number 100 sitting in between these two values. Example: if you want to pick a -190 favorite, you must risk $190 in order to win $100. To back a +170 underdog, you put up $100 and win $170 if the dog wins. In some cases, betting moneylines is actually better value and can provide a bigger profit for less risk.